When will NFL teams learn? You can’t rush a rookie QB onto the field

When it comes to the care and feeding of rookie quarterbacks, NFL coaches are clueless. They can beat the Tampa 2, they can create endless stunts and blitzes, they can detail the intricacies of the spread offense, but they can’t figure out how to handle a rookie QB. NFL teams spend millions of dollars on wildly successful college QBs and then they turn them over to their coaches and cross their fingers.
At this point, it’s safe to say that coaches are, at best, slow learners.
This should be tattooed on the forehead of every rookie quarterback: Warning: Handle with care. DO NOT OPEN UNTIL YEAR 2 (AT THE EARLIEST).
Let’s start with the Chicago Bears, who, other than Jim McMahon, haven’t had a great quarterback since Sid Luckman, who retired 75 years ago. No wonder. Just look what they’ve done lately.
They drafted Mitchell Trubisky second overall in the 2017 draft. The Bears made him the starter four games into his rookie season. It ended badly. They traded him after four seasons. In 2021, the Bears made Justin Fields the 11th overall pick of the draft and named him the starter immediately. He lasted two seasons and was traded to the Steelers.
In 2024, the Bears started over again. They used the first overall pick to select Caleb Williams, who is supposed to be one of the greatest quarterback prospects in years. They immediately made him the starter. After two games, he looks lost, and he’s getting beaten to smithereens playing behind a rank offensive line. His quarterback rating is 53 (average is in the 89-90 range).
Here’s what we’re leading to here: Why do coaches continue to throw rookie quarterbacks into the starting lineup? They’re not like players at other positions; it’s the most difficult position in all of sports, and it takes time to adapt to the speed and talent of the pro game.
Park them on the sideline for a year or more and let them catch up. The Bears should’ve known better after watching Trubisky and Fields flop. If insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, then …
Fields was part of the 2021 NFL quarterback class, which saw five quarterbacks taken with the first 15 picks. Four of them were named the starter as rookies. Only one of them, Trevor Lawrence, has succeeded. The other four failed to perform and were traded to other teams to serve as backups. That’s a 20% success rate for a group of players who cost their original teams a combined total of $140.6 million, not counting nearly $50 million in signing bonuses.
In the draft class of 2022, Kenny Pickett, the only quarterback taken in the first round, was made the starter four games into his rookie year and remained the starter in his second season. It didn’t go well. He was traded to Philadelphia after two seasons to serve as a backup. Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral were taken in the third round in 2022. Ridder and Willis, who started games as rookies, were traded to other teams; Corral was waived after one season and is out of the league.
Then there is the quarterback class of 2023. Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick, was given the starting role the minute he signed with the Panthers. He was benched this week in favor of 36-year-old Andy Dalton. C.J. Stroud, the second overall pick, is the big exception. He started and starred immediately for the Texans as a rookie. Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick, was also made the starter immediately, but wound up missing most of the season with an injury. He’s the starter again this season, but for how long? He is completing just 49% of his passes.
Let’s move on to the 2024 draft in which six quarterbacks were taken in the first round. Three of them — Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix — were named the starters on opening day. J.J. McCarthy will miss the entire season with a knee injury. Michael Penix Jr. and Drake Maye are both starting their rookie campaigns on the bench behind veteran starters. They are better off.
Williams, Daniels and Nix have not thrown a single touchdown pass after two weeks. Daniels is the best of them, but he’s surviving because of his running ability, not his passing, and if he doesn’t turn that around he won’t last long, either. Ask Colin Kaepernick.
There have certainly been quarterbacks who eventually thrived after being named the starter as rookies — among them, Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson. But there have been many more who have failed, and, besides, teams can never go wrong by giving a rookie quarterback a chance to practice and learn for a year or more without the psychic and physical damage that can occur from starting immediately.
Quarterbacks who didn’t start until Year 2: Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Tom Brady.
Quarterbacks who didn’t start until Year 3: Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.
Quarterbacks who didn’t start until Year 4 or later: Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Jordan Love, Steve Young.
No team has had more success with quarterbacks in the last 20 years than the Packers. How did that organization handle their development? Slowly. Patiently. Rodgers waited three years behind Brett Favre to become the starter. Jordan Love waited three years behind Rodgers, throwing just 33 passes in all that time, before he became the starter.
Hall of Famer Steve Young, after a disastrous, short-lived stay in Tampa Bay, waited seven years behind Joe Montana to become the 49ers’ full-time starter.
No team has been more clueless when it comes to the nurturing of young quarterbacks than the New York Jets. This is revealing: Joe Namath, who last played in 1977, still holds the club record for most career starts. When the Jets made BYU’s Zach Wilson the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft, he became the 12th QB the team had drafted in 15 years, and the fifth taken in the first two rounds.
The Jets threw Wilson to the wolves, making him the starter from Day 1 of his career. By the time he staggered to the end of the 2023 season he had been sacked 113 times in 33 games, leaving him with a concussion, a Grade 2 sprain of his right knee and a torn meniscus. Wilson is with the Broncos now, pulling backup duty behind Nix, another rookie who has been pressed into the starting role.
Perhaps no young quarterback was ever handled worse than Alex Smith, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2005 draft out of the University of Utah. He was thrust into the starting lineup early in his rookie season when neither he nor the players around him were equipped for it.
He had six offensive coordinators and four head coaches in his first six seasons and was moved in and out of the lineup. It was a recipe for failure. Two of his head coaches publicly questioned his toughness and manhood. One of them scolded him on the sideline like a child on national TV, prompting broadcaster John Madden to say, “That’s really not part of coaching.”
When Smith had an injured shoulder that he claimed hampered his ability to throw, his head coach publicly stated that he doubted Smith was really injured. Smith wound up undergoing surgery and missed part of one season and all of the 2008 season. In his first three seasons he had 11 wins, 19 touchdown passes and 31 interceptions. He was widely considered a bust.
Then his career was revived by a nurturing and smart coach, Jim Harbaugh. Smith went on to play for 14 seasons (missing two with injury). He won 99 games, passing for 35,650 yards and 199 touchdowns for three teams, and at each stop he made his team significantly better and took them to the playoffs. It was ironic that during his final year with the Kansas City Chiefs, he mentored Mahomes, his backup. Mahomes was given a luxury denied to Smith — he was allowed to spend a year on the sideline learning the pro game.
As recounted here in January, CBS researched this phenomenon a year ago in an article entitled, “How much do QBs’ fortunes rise or fall based on how long they sit?” Writer Jared Dubin studied the 91 quarterbacks drafted from 2000-19 who became the full-time starting quarterback at some point.
• 29 were made the starter immediately.
• 21 were promoted to the starting job some time during the first eight weeks.
• 14 became the starter in the second half of their rookie season.
That means 64 of 91 quarterbacks became full-time starters as rookies. Of the remaining 27 quarterbacks, 16 became starters in their second season, three in their third season and eight in their fourth season.
Dubin wrote, “In almost every (statistical) category, the group of players that took over in Year 3 performed the best, while the players who became starters in the second half of their rookie season performed the worst.”
Actually, quarterbacks who became starters in Year 2, 3 and 4 all had higher completion percentages, yards per attempt, touchdown pass percentage, passer ratings and lower interception percentages than the rookie starter
Yet teams continue to throw their young quarterbacks into the lineup, ill prepared for the job and vulnerable. The Jets forgot to build an offensive line for Wilson. Now the Bears are doing the same thing with Williams. They drafted a wide receiver with their second pick of the first round and signed a top free-agent wide receiver, but they did nothing for the offensive line. It’s as if the Bears were preparing for a flag league. Williams has been sacked nine times. He’s averaging 4.0 yards per attempt. This is the same guy who threw for 10,000 yards in three seasons at the highest level of college football, with 93 touchdown passes and just 14 interceptions.
It’s way too early to say, but time will tell if Williams follows Trubisky and Fields out the door.